Methodology & Sources
Assessment criteria and data basis
This analysis assesses major Bundestag decisions from 1996–2026 according to a uniform macroeconomic standard: the effect on potential growth (labour supply, capital, productivity, energy and location costs), international competitiveness, capital allocation and fiscal sustainability.
It is an efficiency and competitiveness analysis; distributional and environmental policy goals are not counted as a standalone benefit, but their economic costs and benefits are taken into account. Energy policy is judged on the basis of costs, security of supply and competitiveness, not on the basis of climate-science assumptions.
Assigning a precise percentage GDP effect to individual laws is methodologically only possible to a limited extent; the ratings (−10 to +10) are qualitative assessments oriented towards the specialist literature. Verifiable figures are reported separately by "measured / estimate / study / planning".
Data basis & sources
- Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) – national accounts, earnings, insolvency and industrial production statistics
- Deutsche Bundesbank, German Council of Economic Experts (SVR) – neutral heavyweights
- ifo Institute, IW Cologne, DIW – as opposing interpretive poles (employer- or union-leaning)
- Eurostat, OECD, Fraunhofer ISE, BDEW, Federal Network Agency – energy and electricity price data
- Federal Court of Auditors, BMF, IfW Kiel – special-fund appropriation of funds and fiscal-package effects
- DIW/Bertelsmann (pensions), Federal Environment Agency (CO2 price), National Regulatory Control Council (bureaucracy costs)
- Creditreform, IWH insolvency trend – corporate insolvencies 2026
- German Bundestag – printed papers and voting documentation (including Immediate Investment Programme 06/2025, Pension Package 12/2025)
Evidence by topic area
The point values are derived from verifiable orders of magnitude (reported in the justifications for each decision). Key indicators are based on the following sources:
- Energy: BASE (shutdown dates/capacity of nuclear power plants), Fraunhofer ISE & Agora Energiewende (generation, import balance, levelised cost of electricity), Federal Network Agency & netztransparenz.de (EEG surcharge/financing), Eurostat (household electricity prices EU), BDH (heating sales), Federal Environment Agency (CO2 price/revenues), BMWE & Federal Court of Auditors (coal structural aid), EU Commission & Federal Constitutional Court (aid/compensation), Jarvis/Deschênes/Jha (JEEA 2022, social costs of the nuclear phase-out).
- Labour & Social Affairs: German Pension Insurance (entries into retirement at 63), IAB (Hartz matching, minimum-wage employment effect, skilled-labour demand), Destatis/Demografieportal (employment rates), Prognos (pension-package costs), BMF (generational capital), SVR (Riester), ifo (citizen's income wage gap), WSI & ifo/IW as interpretive poles, Federal Employment Agency (citizen's income expenditure).
- Fiscal & Crisis: BMF (borrowing, special funds), Bundesbank, SVR policy briefs, FMSA/SoFFin annual financial statements, RWI & ifo (stimulus-package/scrappage-premium effect), ESM & EU Commission (euro rescue/NGEU), Federal Constitutional Court (KTF ruling 15.11.2023, ESM 2014), Federal Court of Auditors (WSF/energy price brakes), ifo & IW Cologne (infrastructure special fund, additionality 2025).
- Tax & Location: BMF (relief volumes, Growth Opportunities Act), Destatis (distributional effects of tax reform), BDI/VCI (corporate tax burden), DIW (eco-tax/pension contribution), Bundesrat (federalism reform), Federal Court of Auditors (hotel VAT).
- Migration & Regulation: IAB & BAMF (labour migration, skilled-labour demand/immigration), SVR Migration, Bundestag printed papers 19/28649 & 21/2474 as well as the National Regulatory Control Council and DIHK (compliance costs of the Supply Chain Act), Destatis (asylum-related expenditure).
- State & Administration: Federal Court of Auditors & National Regulatory Control Council (OZG implementation, bureaucracy costs/compliance costs, BEG IV), EU Commission/Capgemini (DESI & eGovernment benchmark), BMI & IT Planning Council (register modernisation, once-only potential), Destatis & Bundesbank (public sector, personnel and pension expenditure), IWH Halle (pension projection), BMDV (planning/approval duration), Bitkom/McKinsey (digitalisation potential, as an estimate).